The Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bps to 14.5% in its April 2026 decision, as expected by markets, and signaled that the cutting cycle is likely close to ending. The move marked the eighth consecutive rate cut since departing from the record-high rate of 21% in June last year. The Board of Directors indicated it sees inflation expectations easing from their assessment in the previous meeting, adding room for looser financial conditions. The Board also noted that tax increases in the first quarter of the year slowed the Russian economy, which the government passed to finance its war in Ukraine and fiscal stimulus to aid consumers in Russia’s sanction-hit economy. Pro-inflationary risks continued to prevail over disinflationary risks, resulting in the signal that there might not be room for more cuts. Still, policymaker suggested that expansion in aggregate supply capacity, which was pressured since the war, may expand with lower rates, reducing limiting inflationary concerns.
