S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico MarketSociete Generale expects the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintain a hawkish stance, with effective funding already pushed to 40% via the overnight lending window. The bank notes heavy FX reserve use and liquidity draining to support the Lira and tight conditions. Inflation is seen rising further, with rates likely on hold until at least June and the CBRT’s end-2026 inflation band potentially revised higher.
CBRT seen holding rates and staying hawkish
“In EM, the CBRT is forecast to keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 37.0% today and deliver a hawkish statement.”
“With the CBRT suspending weekly repo window and shifting funding entirely to the overnight lending window the effective fund rate has shot up by 300bp to 40%.”
“Short selling is banned, and nearly $12bn in FX reserves has been deployed since the start of the ME conflict to manage the depreciation of the Lira below 44.00.”
“The CBRT has also drained $27bn (TRY1.2tn) in excess liquidity to maintain tight conditions.”
“Our house view is for rates to stay on hold at least until June and the CBRT could lift its end-2026 inflation forecast band to a more realistic 20%-24% from 15%-21% earlier.”
