Facts:
- GOLD has remained above the 200-day EMA
- The metal tested the $4,800 per ounce level
Recommendation: Long position in GOLD at market price
- SL: 4550
- TP: 5140
Opinion: Gold is currently in a fundamentally interesting position where two bullish scenarios converge. If the Strait of Hormuz remains open and the conflict in the Middle East de-escalates, we expect the dollar to weaken and the market to once again price in Fed rate cuts—which historically has fueled gold’s rise. Alternatively, if the conflict proves to be protracted, gold serves as an effective hedge against geopolitical turmoil. A return by central banks to buying gold from the market could also prove to be a positive factor for gold prices. From a technical perspective, the Take Profit level at $5,140 has been set in a zone overlapping with the upper limit of the volume profile (VWAP since the beginning of 2026) and the vicinity of +1 standard deviation of the anchored VWAP—this is the area with the highest historical concentration of trading volume from previous peaks at the turn of January and February, where supply was strongest. The Stop Loss at $4,550 is positioned symmetrically—below the lower volume zone and the -1 standard deviation boundary of the anchored VWAP, which constitutes the last significant demand structure; a break below this level would shift the market sentiment to bearish and negate the investment thesis. The RSI around 51 suggests neutral momentum with room for gains, showing no signs of overbought conditions.
Methodology and assumptions: This recommendation is based on technical and fundamental analysis of the GOLD chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyze the trend. The target level was set at the level of previous price reactions near historical highs and volume zones. A defensive stop-loss order was also placed in the zone of increased volume (tick) activity.
The actions of central banks could also be an important factor. If they were to begin expanding their balance sheets in order to lower market interest rates, this would be a factor supporting prices. Source: XTB
XTB dataA person preparing a recommendation Mateusz Czyzkowski, financial markets analyst Other persons participating in preparation of recommendationA name of entity supervisingDate and hour of preparation of recommendation 4/21/2026 16:16 Date and hour of publication of recommendation 4/21/2026 16:31 A group of addressees of the recommendation XTB customers and potential customers Relevant information sources xStation5, Bloomberg Financial LP A time horizon for the recommendation Till reaching target or stop loss price Projected date of actualization Unspecified
