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ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Hungary remains central in Central and Eastern European (CEE), with the first post‑election central bank of Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) meeting expected to leave rates at 6.25% while focusing on updated forward guidance. Despite markets pricing sizeable rate cuts over 18 months, he argues the MNB is unlikely to rush, seeing risks skewed hawkish, which could support EUR/HUF within its recent 360–367 trading range.
NBH meeting and FX implications
“We expect, in line with the consensus, that rates will remain unchanged at 6.25%; the focus will be mainly on the forward guidance and how much it has changed since the last meeting in March.”
“The market has shifted significantly more dovish after the elections, and Hungary is one of the few places in the world where the market is pricing in rate cuts of around 50bp in the 18-month horizon.”
“The NBH [MNB] is therefore unlikely to rush with rate cuts, and the current market pricing shows the maximum possible in our view.”
“In turn, we see the risk rather on the hawkish side for today’s meeting.”
“This could help FX, which has been fluctuating in the 360-367 EUR/HUF range since the elections.”
