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Chris Turner at ING argues that a regime of higher Oil prices, inflation and tighter global policy would favour EUR/CHF upside. Switzerland’s low fossil-fuel exposure means the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to lag in tightening. Turner expects European Central Bank (ECB) policy to be repriced more hawkishly than SNB policy and sees scope for EUR/CHF to move back toward 0.9250/0.9260.
SNB lag versus ECB supports upside
“If we are moving into a period of higher oil prices, higher inflation and greater chances of central banks tightening, then EUR/CHF could be headed higher.”
“That means the country is less exposed to the oil shock, and the Swiss National Bank will be one of the last to react with any tightening.”
“Higher oil prices will therefore see ECB policy repriced more hawkishly than that of the SNB – which should be a EUR/CHF positive.”
“On this subject, look out for any comments today from the SNB President Martin Schlegel, who will be speaking at the bank’s Annual General Meeting.”
“EUR/CHF can trade back up to 0.9250/60 if we are right in our thinking.”
