The Fed meeting is behind us, but it’s not the end of the central bank week. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision today, with markets expecting a 25 bp cut. This first rate cut since February is expected to respond to the economic slowdown risk arising from U.S. trade policy. Despite the consensus, there are voices suggesting that some members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee may favor a more aggressive 50 bp cut to alleviate pressure on households and businesses.
The UK will remain in focus today, also due to speculation surrounding today’s conference in the Oval Office. Last night, Trump announced that a “major trade deal with representatives of a great and respected country” will be revealed. The early session appreciation of the British pound reflects market expectations ahead of the conference, while communicated progress in trade negotiations is fueling optimism in the stock market.
Apart from the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank will also publish their monetary decisions, meaning we should see increased volatility in the forex market soon. As is typical on Thursdays, we’ll also get data on U.S. jobless claims. Last week’s reading significantly exceeded expectations, but today’s forecast suggests a return to the stable 4-week average for this year.
Economic Calendar for Today:
07:00 AM BST, Germany – Balance of Tade Data for March:
- German Trade Balance: actual 21.1B; forecast 19.0B; previous 17.9B;
- German Exports: actual 1.1% MoM; forecast 1.0% MoM; previous 1.8% MoM;
- German Imports: actual -1.4% MoM; forecast 0.4% MoM; previous 0.5% MoM;
07:00 AM BST, Germany – Industrial Production for March:
- German Industrial Production: actual 3.0% MoM; forecast 0.9% MoM; previous -1.3% MoM;
- German Industrial Production: actual -0.42% YoY; previous -4.10% YoY;
07:00 AM BST, United Kingdom – Halifax House Price Index for April:
- actual 3.2% YoY; forecast 2.6% YoY; previous 2.9% YoY;
- actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.2% MoM; previous -0.5% MoM;
10:00 AM BST, United Kingdom – Mortgage Rate (GBP) for April:
- previous 7.23%;
10:40 AM BST, Germany – German Buba Balz Speaks
12:00 PM BST, United Kingdom – BoE MPC vote hike for May:
- forecast 0; previous 0;
12:00 PM BST, United Kingdom – BoE MPC vote unchanged for May:
- forecast 0; previous 8;
12:00 PM BST, United Kingdom – BoE MPC vote cut for May:
- forecast 9; previous 1;
12:00 PM BST, United Kingdom – BoE Interest Rate Decision for May:
- forecast 4.25%; previous 4.50%;
12:00 PM BST, United Kingdom – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
01:00 PM BST, United Kingdom – BOE Inflation Letter
01:30 PM BST, United States – Employment Data:
- Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 231K; previous 241K;
- Nonfarm Productivity (Q1): forecast -0.4% QoQ; previous 1.5% QoQ;
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: previous 226.00K;
- Continuing Jobless Claims: forecast 1,890K; previous 1,916K;
01:30 PM BST, United States – Unit Labor Costs (Q1):
- forecast 5.3% QoQ; previous 2.2% QoQ;
02:00 PM BST, Euro Zone – ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
02:15 PM BST, United Kingdom – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
06:00 PM BST, United States – GDP data:
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): forecast 2.2%; previous 2.2%;
06:00 PM BST, United States – 30-Year Bond Auction:
- previous 4.813%;
09:30 PM BST, United States – Fed’s Balance Sheet:
- previous 6,709B;
09:30 PM BST, United States – Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks:
- previous 3.000T;
12:30 AM BST, Japan – Inflation Data for March:
- Household Spending: forecast 0.2% YoY; previous -0.5% YoY;
- Household Spending: forecast -0.5% MoM; previous 3.5% MoM;
12:30 AM BST, Japan – Overall wage income of employees for March:
- forecast 2.4%; previous 3.1%;
12:30 AM BST, Japan – Overtime Pay for March:
- previous 2.20% YoY;
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