ECB policymakers acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, although the central bank was well positioned to navigate this uncertainty, minutes from the March ECB meeting showed. The environment could change rapidly, and uncertainty regarding both the war and its economic impact was likely to remain very high in the future, but it was also possible that this uncertainty might be resolved over the coming weeks or months. Although the near-term inflation outlook had been revised up substantially, inflation was still seen to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. Against this background, keeping rates unchanged in March while retaining optionality for future meetings was a prudent approach. The meeting-by-meeting approach without any pre-commitment to a particular rate path was especially helpful at this juncture.
