CoreWeave extends its strong rebound and is heading toward a technical resistance level
CoreWeave (CRWV.US) is a cloud infrastructure provider and distributor of AI-focused software—it may not be as well-known as the leaders of the AI revolution, but it regularly comes up in market discussions and has once again found itself in the spotlight among investors. The company’s shares are up more than 10%, driven by a series of positive announcements that, at first glance, paint a picture of a rapidly growing company. On April 9, CoreWeave announced an extension of its agreement with Meta Platforms for an additional $21 billion , bringing the total value of contracts between the two entities to an impressive $35 billion with a term running through 2032. On the same day, the company signed a multi-year agreement with Anthropic —one of the leading AI model developers, which, in the wake of a series of missteps by OpenAI, is slowly beginning to take the lead in the race for dominance in the language model segment. The chart shows a rebound, but also the scars
Looking at the CRWV daily chart, the dramatic nature of recent months is clearly evident—following an euphoric stock market debut in the spring of 2025, the price plummeted from around $190 to lows in the region of $70–75 , where it encountered strong support marked by the black horizontal line (the current Value zone). Since the beginning of 2026, a systematic recovery has been underway, and the current session has pushed the price above the key resistance level of ~$103–$105 (tick VWAP, blue line), which may signal a structural trend reversal. The RSI (14) reached a level of 73.92 — an overbought zone comparable to that of July 2025, which historically preceded short-term corrections. It is also worth noting that the price remains well below the earlier Value Area marked on the chart in the $130–$145 range, which sets another significant target for the bulls. Source: xStation The financial side of the coin: growth without profit But does market sentiment reflect the fundamentals? CoreWeave increased its revenue to $5.131 billion from $1.915 billion a year earlier, representing an impressive increase of 168% . However, this entire surplus was absorbed by technology, infrastructure, and administrative costs—operating income fell to just $-46 million , and the net loss reached $1.167 billion . Net interest expense rose to $1.229 billion from $361 million a year earlier, meaning that the company allocates over 30% of its revenue solely to debt service – all while taking on new debt. Management frequently cites an adjusted EBITDA figure of $3.093 billion , but the difference between this figure and the accounting result is not accidental. It consists of asset depreciation amounting to $2.454 billion — assets for which the company pays the aforementioned interest — and stock-based compensation costs exceeding $630 million . In other words, depreciation accounts for nearly half of the company’s revenue, and the profitability metric preferred by management simply does not take this into account. Control weaknesses and credit risk This picture is not improved by the significant weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting, which are expected to persist throughout 2026. This is a signal that, under normal market conditions, would have triggered a much sharper reaction from investors. The credit market appears to be more sober in its assessment: CoreWeave’s 5-year CDS spread, despite a recent narrowing, remains above 600 bps , which, under standard assumptions, implies an annual probability of default of approximately 10% and a cumulative 30–40% chance of default over a 5-year horizon . What’s next? CoreWeave’s growth strategy relies heavily on its partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI—companies that, despite successive technological breakthroughs, continue to generate increasing losses . Healthy skepticism dictates that we consider whether the announced contracts—spectacular in terms of nominal value—are not, in part, an attempt to sustain market sentiment around a company whose business model exhibits serious structural weaknesses. If CoreWeave were to go bankrupt, it could turn out to be just such a “canary in the coal mine”—a signal to investors that the entire generative AI ecosystem is burning through money faster than it can earn it. Regardless of management’s statements and market enthusiasm, the raw data today leaves more questions than answers—and those answers will come with the next quarterly reports.
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