S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico MarketBNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes a sharp divergence between CNY forwards and spot, suggesting hedge unwinding alongside asset outflows. CNY has outperformed peers, yet the bank questions its safe haven role as spot flows show large outflows tied to expatriation. PBoC officials reiterate they will not use depreciation for competitiveness and aim to keep the renminbi broadly stable.
Forward strength versus spot outflows
“CNY has strongly outperformed its peers, but we also struggle to see a strong case for how the currency can serve as a safe haven.”
“The past two days have seen very large outflows, and this almost certainly relates to asset expatriation, or even outright currency transactions in reaction to current developments.”
“However, our flows tell a different story. The past three sessions since the conflict began have generated the largest CNY forward/swap flows YTD, extending similarly strong moves before that.”
“China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said today that Beijing neither needs nor intends to use currency depreciation to gain trade competitiveness, reaffirming that the renminbi will not be deployed as a policy tool in trade disputes.”
