The offshore yuan held above 6.83 per USD, pausing near an over three-year high as investors weighed a fragile US–Iran ceasefire. The agreement, tied to a 10-point proposal and contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, initially boosted risk appetite and weakened the dollar. However, sentiment turned cautious after fresh accusations from Iran of violations, citing disputes over uranium enrichment, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and alleged airspace breaches.
Meanwhile, China remains relatively better positioned among Asian peers, with the yuan up about 1.0% against the dollar this month and 2.4% firmer year-to-date, as markets price in reduced geopolitical risk. The currency’s resilience has been supported by China’s large oil stockpiles and comparatively stable energy supply chains. Focus now turns to upcoming inflation numbers due Friday, expected to show a modest rise in annual consumer prices and a return to yearly growth in producer prices for the first time since 2022.
