- Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 60K in March.
- The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%.
- Markets could have a delayed reaction to employment data due to the Good Friday holiday.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Investors will scrutinize the underlying details of the employment report to assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to consider an interest-rate hike later in the year. Still, the immediate market reaction could remain subdued, with trading volumes staying thin on the Good Friday holiday.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 60K following the disappointing 92K decrease recorded in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to hold steady at 3.8%.
Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect a moderate 30K increase in NFP in March.
“The reversal of weather and strike effects should result in a payrolls composition similar to the end of 2025, with outsized healthcare support. We also look for the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.4%, with a risk of moving higher. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased a subdued 0.2% m/m, translating to 3.6% y/y,” they add.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported earlier in the week that employment in the private sector rose by 62K in March. This print followed the 66K (revised from 63K) increase reported in February. Assessing the report’s findings, “overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. Meanwhile, the Employment Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey came in at 48.7 in March, pointing to an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector payrolls.
Danske Bank Research Team also projects the NFP to come in at 30K and see the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.5%. “Recent indicators, including declines in daily job postings and weekly private sector employment growth, point to a softer labour market,” they note.
