Facts:
- MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover with RSI displaying bullish divergence (higher lows and potential higher high)
- Target at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level has previously acted as support which now might be retested as resistance
- NBP kept rates unchanged at 5.75%, maintaining its hawkish stance since October 2023
- Polish central bank projects inflation to reach 5% by end-2025, with CPI not returning to target until 2027
Recommendation:
- Transaction: Long position on USDPLN at the market price.
- Target: 3.9382
- Stop: 3.7744
Opinion:
USDPLN shows compelling technical signals for a potential upside reversal, with the MACD approaching a bullish crossover and RSI forming a bullish divergence pattern. TAt the same time, the macroeconomic scenario presented by the NBP (National Bank of Poland) seems to be excessively hawkish, which may be indicated by today’s lower-than-expected inflation reading.
We recommend establishing long positions at current levels, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which previously acted as support. Set stops below the recent low for thesis invalidation.
