The most important publication of today, and indeed the entire week, will be the US labor market report, set to be released at 1:30 PM GMT today.
Analysts’ expectations suggest an increase in employment change to 202k, alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Hourly wages are expected to decline to 0.3% month-over-month (compared to 0.4% m/m previously) and 3.9% year-over-year (from 4.0% y/y previously). The increase in employment expectations confirms that the recent drop to 12k in October may indeed have been caused by one-off factors, such as hurricanes. The NFP report expectations theoretically support further Fed rate cuts due to reduced wage pressure and a slight rise in the unemployment rate.
Detailed schedule for the day:
07:00 AM GMT, Germany – Industrial Production for October:
- German Industrial Production: previous -4.62% YoY;
- German Industrial Production: forecast 1.0% MoM; previous -2.5% MoM;
10:00 AM GMT, Euro Zone – Employment Data:
- Employment Change (Q3): forecast 0.2% QoQ; previous 0.2% QoQ;
- Employment Change (Q3): forecast 1.0% YoY; previous 1.0% YoY;
- Employment Overall (Q3): forecast 169,064.1K; previous 169,064.1K;
10:00 AM GMT, Euro Zone – GDP data:
- GDP (Q3): forecast 0.9% YoY; previous 0.6% YoY;
- GDP (Q3): forecast 0.4% QoQ; previous 0.4% QoQ;
01:30 PM GMT, Canada – Employment Data for November:
- Employment Change: forecast 25.0K; previous 14.5K;
- Unemployment Rate: forecast 6.6%; previous 6.5%;
01:30 PM GMT, United States – Employment Data for November:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: forecast 202K; previous 12K;
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls: forecast 160K; previous -28K;
- Unemployment Rate: forecast 4.2%; previous 4.1%;
- Average Hourly Earnings: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;
- Average Hourly Earnings: forecast 3.9% YoY; previous 4.0% YoY;
02:15 PM GMT, United States – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
03:00 PM GMT, Canada – PMI Data for November:
- Ivey PMI n.s.a: previous 52.2;
03:00 PM GMT, United States – University of Michigan inflation report for December:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: previous 2.6%;
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations: previous 3.2%;
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment: forecast 73.1; previous 71.8;
- Michigan Consumer Expectations: previous 76.9;
- Michigan Current Conditions: previous 63.9;
03:00 PM GMT, Canada – PMI Data for November:
- Ivey PMI: forecast 53.1; previous 52.0;
06:00 PM GMT, United States – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
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