The oil market remains at the center of investor attention as markets prepare for the upcoming week across global equities. The US session will not take place today due to Easter holidays, while European markets also remain closed. Sentiment in Wall Street index futures is mixed.
- Asian equities ended the week higher despite ongoing elevated market volatility. Sentiment improved following reports suggesting that more trade may soon resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Thursday’s rebound in Asia followed improved sentiment on Wall Street, supported by news that Iran is working with Oman on an agreement to oversee commerce along the strategic shipping route, which has been largely blocked since the start of the conflict.
- Trading in the region remained limited, however, as many key Asian markets were closed for holidays. Major European exchanges were also shut.
- US Treasury futures in Asia traded close to flat levels, while the cash market remained closed until the US session. Meanwhile, the US dollar showed mixed performance against G10 currencies.
- The oil market remains under strong geopolitical pressure. Prices surged above $110 per barrel after Donald Trump issued new threats against Iranian infrastructure, aiming to increase pressure on Tehran during negotiations.
- WTI crude rose by 11%, while the global Brent benchmark settled near $109 per barrel, as shown in the chart below.
- Iran carried out additional attacks overnight and into Friday morning targeting sites in Gulf states, further sustaining tensions around the security of energy transport and maritime trade.
- A container ship signaling French ownership passed through the Strait of Hormuz, likely marking the first recorded transit by a Western Europe-linked vessel since the Iran conflict effectively disrupted this key route.
US index futures are slightly lower, with S&P 500 contracts down around 0.3%.
US macro data:
- Nonfarm Payrolls (March): +178K (forecast: 65K, previous: -92K)
- Average Earnings (YoY): 3.5% (forecast: 3.7%, previous: 3.8%)
- Average Earnings (MoM): 0.2% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.4%)
- Government Payrolls: -8K (previous: -6K)
- Private Payrolls: +186K (forecast: 78K, previous: -86K)
- Manufacturing Payrolls: +15K (forecast: -5K, previous: -12K)
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.9% (forecast: 62%, previous: 62.0%)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast: 4.4%, previous: 4.4%)
- Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 (forecast: 34.3, previous: 34.3)
Revisions: January payrolls were revised up by 34K (from +126K to +160K), while February was revised down by 41K. In the initial reaction, Nasdaq 100 futures are gaining, with concerns about a US economic slowdown easing. However, the strong labor market data may also reinforce expectations that the Fed will remain cautious about rate cuts. The full market reaction may only become clear after US markets reopen next week. The report also showed that the number of discouraged workers rose sharply in March by 144K to 510K.
OIL (D1 timeframe)
Source: xStation5
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