The chart below is key to this analysis.
It now has two closes below the 5993.00 major Gann square. The long term target area of 6102.00 to 6142.00 comes from levels back in 1981, 1987, 2009, 2016 and 2022, so the 6053.25 could be a long term top, as we said in the Gold,
We will now watch for the key levels below to see if this will indeed be a longer term top. It has not yet taken any key support levels out so it is not necessary to watch the retracements above just yet.
getting as close as it did to the 2841.50 Gann square cluster (from a long term perspective), we will watch all the retracements below to see if a bigger break is coming.
Use 5993.00 as the swing point for the week again.
Below it, the tightest support area is the 5850.25 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5832.00, if this area holds the trend remains extremely positive and new highs can quickly follow. The next key….
Tuesday’s low held just above the tightest area of support (5850.25/5832.00) the low was 5855.00 this keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high should follow. The rally from it took it right to the next major Gann square at 5993.00 on Friday. We now have to watch the 78.6% level back to the ATH. A failure to make a new high in this area can be the end of the rally for now.
Use 5993.00 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, a failure to make a new high in the area of 78.6% at 6010.00 can be the end of the rally for now, a trade up to it, or above and then closing below the 5993.00 major Gann square would be an indication of a change in the short term trend and the high from that day would have to hold to keep that idea intact. The long term target area above is 6102.00 to 6142.00. This is a cluster of major Gann squares and the area that a possible longer term top can come from. A failure to turn lower from this area gives us only major Gann squares above to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next one is 6290.75.
Below it, look for the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5832.00 again. It did get close to the 5850.25 major Gann square, but held well above 23.6%, so a trade down to 5832.00 and then closing back above 5850.25 would keep the trend extremely positive. The next key area is the 5706.00 major Gann square and 38.2% of the same move at 5695.00. If a longer term top is in place, look for the area of 5453.00 to 5426.00, this 23.6% back to the 2022 low, the 200 day moving average and a major Gann square. The long term swing point is now 5083.00, this is 38.2% back to the 2022 low.
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