The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec fell to around 7.1%, retreating from multi-year highs on renewed buying interest supported by expectations of central bank intervention and lighter state borrowing. Investor sentiment was strengthened by reports of likely Reserve Bank of India purchases last week, while state governments announced a lower-than-anticipated debt issuance plan ahead of this week’s monetary policy decision. Economists widely expect the RBI to maintain its policy repo rate at 5.25%, citing elevated geopolitical risks and supply-driven energy shocks stemming from the Iran conflict. Despite the pullback, upward pressure on yields remains, with crude oil prices hovering near $111 per barrel amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated oil costs continue to pose inflationary risks and widen India’s current account deficit, while heavy selling by foreign investors and banks has kept volatility elevated.
