A 25bp rate cut is widely expected at the European Central Bank’s meeting today, with much of the focus now on what the guidance will be for the months ahead. EUR/USD rose slightly this morning towards 1.0820 before falling back just below 1.0800.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 eurozone growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, citing increased military and infrastructure spending, particularly in Germany. The bank expects the ECB to keep rates on hold in July, contrary to its earlier forecast of a 25bp move.
With sentiment in the US and Asia buoyant, futures are also pointing to a higher open in European markets today. The broad Euro Stoxx 50 contract is currently up 0.15%.
Detailed economic calendar:
06:45 am GMT – Switzerland, February unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted): Forecast 2.7% y/y. Previously 2.7% y/y.
07:00 am GMT – Sweden, February CPI inflation: Forecast 1.1% y/y. Previously 1.0% y/y.
10:00 am GMT – Eurozone, January retail sales: Forecast (seasonally adjusted): Forecast 0.1% m/m Previously -0.2% m/m.
11:00 am GMT – Turkey, CBRT decision: Previously 45%
12:30 am GMT – USA, February Challenger data: Previously 49.8k.
01:15 pm GMT – Eurozone, ECB decision: Forecast 2.5%. Previously 2.75%
01:30 pm GMT – US, unemployment benefits data: Forecast 235k. Previously 242k.
01:45 pm GMT – Eurozone, press conference with Lagarde.
03:30 pm GMT – US, EIA gas inventory data: Forecast -92 bcf. Previously -261 bcf.
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