Facts:
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $88,448.1, having retraced from its all-time high of $109,354
- Price is currently at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential reversal point
- 100-day EMA is at $93,700, providing key resistance and potential take profit target
- 200-day EMA is at $85,500, representing critical support and stop loss level
- Despite recent ETF outflows of $1.5 billion over the past two days, the market absorbed over $1 billion in selling pressure yesterday
Recommendation:
- Transaction: Long position on Bitcoin at market price
- Target: $93,700 (aligned with 100-day EMA)
- Stop: $85,500 (aligned with 200-day EMA)
Opinion:
Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilizing after its retreat from all-time highs, with the price finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Despite recent ETF outflows creating selling pressure, the market has demonstrated resilience by absorbing over $1 billion in sales yesterday, indicating strong underlying demand. The 200-day EMA at $85,500 provides a clear invalidation point for this bullish thesis (therefore stop loss), while the 100-day EMA at $93,700 offers a realistic target for this swing trade. With institutional interest continuing to grow and the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve proposal still in play, the medium-term outlook remains positive despite short-term volatility.
