ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that Central and Eastern European currencies remain under pressure despite recent gains in the Forint, Zloty and Koruna. He points to holiday-thinned liquidity, geopolitical uncertainty, and still-elevated EUR/PLN and EUR/CZK levels, while Turkish inflation data are expected to keep Central Bank of Turkey rate cuts off the table for the coming months.
Regional FX still under pressure
“The region is preparing for a long weekend, with the Czech Republic and Hungary closed for trading on Friday. Given the uncertain geopolitical environment, this should lead to a reduction of risk ahead of the extended week despite the risk-on sentiment in the last two days.”
“Turkey will release its March inflation on Friday. We expect a slowdown from 3.0% to 2.2% month-on-month, but still a higher reading than before the fuel shock, resulting in an increase from 31.5% to 32.2% YoY. This should confirm that Central Bank of Turkey rate cuts are not on the table at this time – at least for the next few months, until more clarity is seen on the impact of oil prices and the development of domestic inflationary pressures.”
“CEE FX saw some relief yesterday as the zloty and koruna joined the forint rally, but as global headlines suggest, we are still far from any visible relief. EUR/PLN and EUR/CZK remain close to their local highs, and we can expect some reversal in the recent EUR/HUF slide of the past few days. Getting back to 390 could be too far.”
