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Swedish Jobless Rate Rises In May

Sweden’s jobless rate increased in May, figures from Statistics Sweden showed on Tuesday.

The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent in May from 9.4 percent in April.

The number of unemployed persons decreased to 546,100 in May from 521,000 in the previous month.

The youth unemployment rate, which is applied to the 15-24 age group, fell to 30.5 percent in May from 31.2 percent in the prior month.

The employment rate increased to 67.2 percent in May from 66.8 percent in April. The number of employed persons was 5.051 million. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate was 9.1 percent in May.

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Danish Consumer Confidence Weakens In June

Denmark consumer confidence weakened in June, survey data from Statistics Denmark showed on Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index fell to 2.3 in June from 2.8 in May. The average for the past six months was -1.7.

The index measuring consumers’ view regarding the future personal financial situation decreased to 12.4 in June from 14.4 in the preceding month.

The measure reflecting the past personal financial situation fell to 6.3 in June from 7.8 in the prior month.

Households’ assessment regarding the general economic situation of the country over the next year expanded to 10.4 in June from 8.5 in May.

The index reflecting the view on the past general economic situation improved to -10.3 from -16.7 May.

Consumers were more negative toward the big purchases in June as the index decreased to -7.6 from -0.3 in the previous month.

They expect the unemployment to decrease over the next year.

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Finnish Jobless Rate Falls In May

Finland’s jobless rate decreased in May, figures from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.

The unemployment rate for the 15 to 74 age group fell to 9.6 percent in May from 10.9 percent in the same month last year. In April, jobless rate was 9.0 percent.

The number of unemployed persons decreased by 25,000 to 275,000 in May from 300,000 in the last year.

The employment rate rose to 73.0 percent in May from 69.1 percent in the same month last year. The number of employed persons grew by 138,000 from a year ago to 2.58 million.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6 percent in May.

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UK Inflation Exceeds 2% In May

UK consumer price inflation exceeded the central bank’s target in May, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday.

Consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.1 percent in May from 1.5 percent in April. This was above economists’ forecast of 1.8 percent and the Bank of England’s target of 2 percent.

Excluding volatile energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices, core inflation rose to 2 percent in May from 1.3 percent in April. The rate was forecast to rise to 1.5 percent.

The monthly growth in consumer prices held steady at 0.6 percent, while it was forecast to ease to 0.3 percent.

Another report from the ONS showed that output price inflation came in at 4.6 percent versus 4.0 percent in April and economists’ forecast of 4.5 percent.

At the same time, input price inflation increased to 10.7 percent from 10.0 percent in April. This was the highest rate since September 2011 and above the expected rate of 10.6 percent.

Month-on-month, output prices gained 0.5 percent, slightly faster than the 0.4 percent rise seen in April. At the same time, input price growth slowed marginally to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent.

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E.U. Economics Preview: Germany Industrial Output, Economic Confidence Due

Industrial production and economic confidence from Germany are due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany’s industrial production data for April. Economists forecast output to grow 0.5 percent on month, slower than the 2.5 percent increase in March.

At 2.45 am ET, foreign trade and current account figures are due from France.

At 3.00 am ET, industrial production from Hungary and retail sales from the Czech Republic are due. Economists forecast retail sales to grow 11.3 percent annually in April following a 6.6 percent rise in March.

Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden publishes industrial production and new orders data.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy’s Istat releases retail sales for April. Sales had decreased 0.1 percent on month in March.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany ZEW economic confidence survey results are due. The economic confidence index is forecast to rise to 86.0 in June from 84.4 in May.

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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Retail Sales Data Due

Retail sales data from euro area is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, GDP data from Slovakia and retail sales from Hungary are due.

At 3.30 am ET, Germany’s construction PMI data for May is due.

At 4.30 am ET, IHS Markit publishes UK construction Purchasing Managers’ survey data for May. The index is forecast to rise to 62.3 from 61.6 in April.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat releases euro area retail sales data for April. Sales are forecast to fall 1.2 percent on month, reversing a 2.7 percent rise in March.

In the meantime, Greece GDP data is due from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. At 6.00 am ET, Ireland’s Central Statistics Office is scheduled to issue GDP data for the first quarter.

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European Shares Seen Opening On Cautious Note

European stocks are likely to open on a cautious note Friday after robust U.S. economic data boosted the dollar and bond yields.

Concerns about higher inflation and sooner-than-expected monetary policy tightening are back in focus, with New York Fed President John Williams saying that it makes sense for Fed officials to begin discussing their options for adjusting policy.

Asian markets traded mixed and gold hovered near two-week lows after seeing its worst tumble since February, while oil dropped from over two-year highs on concerns about the patchy roll-out of anti-coronavirus vaccinations around the globe.

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with Eurozone retail sales for April and construction PMI figures from Germany due out later in the session.

ECB President Lagarde and FED Chair Powell are scheduled to speak and any chatter on monetary policy could sway the market mood.

In the United States, trading is likely to be driven by reaction to the monthly jobs report, which could have a significant impact on the outlook for monetary policy.

Economists expect the report to show employment jumped by 664,000 jobs in May after climbing by 266,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent.

U.S. stocks ended lower overnight as upbeat private payroll, jobless claims and service sector activity data led to renewed concerns about the outlook for monetary policy. Investors also mulled over a new report that Biden may be open to a lower tax hike.

The Dow slipped 0.1 percent and the S&P 500 dropped 0.4 percent while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1 percent.

European stocks ended Thursday’s session broadly lower as upbeat euro zone business growth data fanned fears of rising inflation.

The pan European Stoxx 600 eased 0.1 percent. France’s CAC 40 index shed 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 dipped 0.6 percent, while the German DAX rose 0.2 percent.

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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Final Composite PMI Data Due

Composite Purchasing Managers’ survey results from euro area are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, consumer and producer prices are due from Turkey. Consumer price inflation is forecast to climb to 17.25 percent in May from 17.14 percent in April.

At 3.15 am ET, Spain’s services PMI data is due. The PMI is expected to climb to 58.0 in May from 54.6 in the previous month.

At 3.45 am ET, IHS Markit releases Italy’s composite PMI data.

Thereafter, final PMI survey results are due from France and Germany at 3.50 am and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is set to issue euro area final PMI data. The composite output index is seen at 56.9 in May, unchanged from the flash estimate.

At 4.30 am ET, UK Markit/CIPS composite PMI survey results are due. The final reading is seen at 62.0 in May, unchanged from the flash estimate.

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A Soft Opening Predicted in European Markets

Exuberance in the European stock markets is expected to abate on Wednesday as equities brace for a cautious trading day amidst re-emergence of taper-talk from the U.S. Wednesday is expected to sober down the smart rally of Tuesday that witnessed DAX 30 closing at a record high, CAC 40 closing at a 21 year high, Italy’s FTSE MIB closing at 13 year high and Spain’s IBEX 35 hitting a 16 month high. Overnight, the NASDAQ had shed 0.23 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 0.13 percent as cautious investors weighed in growth optimism with inflation fears and Fedspeak revealed dwindling headroom for forbearance on the monetary policy front.

On Tuesday, the European indexes had recorded a smart rally with the DAX 30 surging by 0.95 percent, FTSE 100 strengthening by 0.82 percent; pan European Stoxx 600 adding 0.75 percent, CAC 40 rallying by 0.66 percent and the Swiss SMI gaining 0.63 percent. Gold declined from five month highs as Manufacturing PMI of 61.2 reflected robust economic recovery in the U.S. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1898 per troy ounce, slightly down from Tuesday’s close of $1900.

The Dollar Index recovered 0.09 percent from yesterday’s level of 89.83 and is currently at 89.91 while U.S. ten year bond yields remain stable at 1.61 percent reflecting receding fears of interest rate hardening in the U.S.

Brent Crude is trading near two year high of $70.40 levels, up from $70.25 level on Tuesday, primarily driven by forecasts of likely fall in inventory levels and the delay in supply of Iranian crude. Prospects of vaccine led rebound in major economies continue to outweigh the coronavirus second wave induced demand drop in Asia.

The American stock futures are trading in negative territory and so are India’s Sensex, Singapore’s STI and China’s Shanghai Composite. STI has corrected by 0.85 percent, Shanghai Composite has declined by 0.64 percent and BSE Sensex has lost 0.42 percent. However the mood is mixed and the Australian ASX 200 has traded 0.93 percent higher, whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 has risen around 0.50 percent.

Markets also await the Retail Sales data for April from Germany, Unemployment Change for May from Spain, Consumer Credit, Mortgage Lending and Mortgage Approvals for April from U.K. and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for June from the U.S. later today.

Monetary Policy stance and the way forward, likely to be enunciated by E.C.B. President and key U.S.Fed officials later today are likely to be singled out for scrutiny by stock markets, as stimulus curbs and inflation fears intermittently, loom and linger. Eurozone’s recent inflation reading rising above the ECB comfort level is bound to haunt markets, as investors weigh-in inflation worries and growth prospects in more and more economies that reopen.

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German Retail Sales Down More Than Expected In April

Germany’s retail sales declined more than expected in April, data released by Destatis revealed on Wednesday.

Retail sales declined 5.5 percent on a monthly basis, reversing March’s 7.7 percent increase. Economists had forecast sales to drop 2 percent in April.

On a yearly basis, growth in retail sales slowed to 4.4 percent from 11.6 percent in March. This was slower than the expected expansion of 10.1 percent.

Destatis said the federal emergency brake in the second half of April and the Easter business in March 2021 are very likely to have been the main reasons for the decline in sales.

Food, beverages and tobacco sales slid 3.4 percent from the last year, while non-food store sales surged 10.6 percent in April.

Compared to February 2020, the month before the crisis, retail sales were calendar and seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent lower in April. In nominal terms, retail sales decreased 5.4 percent on month, while turnover advanced 5.8 percent annually in April.