Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to below 4.9%, retreating from multi-year highs to hit a four-week low as inflation concerns eased after US President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Less than two hours before a deadline for Iran to reach a deal or face intensified attacks, Trump announced a “double-sided ceasefire” linked to Iran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said the US had received a 10-point Iranian proposal that provides a workable basis for negotiations, with the two-week window intended to finalize a broader settlement. The ceasefire could soften expectations for further tightening by the RBA, as easing oil prices may reduce near-term inflation pressure linked to earlier supply disruptions. Markets had been pricing a rate hike toward 4.35% or higher at the May meeting, partly due to elevated energy prices. Still, analysts warned that supply conditions could take months to fully normalize even if a lasting agreement is reached.
