- USD/CAD reverses an early dip to a two-week low and draws support from a combination of factors.
- Retreating Oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the pair amid a bullish USD.
- Falling US bond yields might cap gains for the USD and any further appreciating move for the pair.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying near the 1.3925 area, or a two-week low touched earlier this Monday and climbs to a fresh daily peak during the first half of the European session. The intraday uptick is sponsored by a combination of factors and lifts spot prices to the 1.3975 region in the last hour.
Crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day winning streak to a two-week high touched on Friday. This, in turn, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie, which, along with the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, lacks follow-through selling after the initial reaction to Scott Bessent’s nomination as US Treasury Secretary amid bets for a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). This turns out to be another factor pushing the USD/CAD pair higher, though the upside potential seems limited.
Investors remain concerned about geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which could potentially impact Oil supplies. Furthermore, rising fuel demand in China and India – the world’s top and third-largest importers, respectively – should limit any meaningful downside for Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, Bessent’s conservative views on fiscal policy trigger a sharp decline in the US Treasury bond yields. This might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and keep a lid on any further gains for the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out.
